When the Forum for Democratic Change lost the Bugiri municipality parliamentary seat to Justice Forum (JEEMA) party president, Asuman Basalirwa, it was not merely that their candidate, Eunice Namatende, had got beaten, but they now realise that they allowed themselves to get preoccupied with a single election and ended up losing everywhere during last week's polling in new local governments and mayoral areas.
Out of the six new municipalities which went to the polls end of last week, FDC did not win a single seat. The ruling NRM party swept four seats while Uganda Peoples Congress and JEEMA took Apac and Bugiri, respectively.
NRM won in Kotido, Nebbi, Sheema and Ibanda. Deputy spokesperson at the NRM, Ofwono Opondo told The Observer in the aftermath, "We maximised our potential in areas that we could win and we won. We lost in the others but at least we managed to edge out our closest rivals [FDC]."
When the FDC leadership convened on Monday to evaluate their dismal performance, the National Executive Committee acknowledged that they made a mistake in strategy.
"There was general consensus within NEC pointing to the fact that we made a mistake to have concentrated on one constituency [Bugiri]. We should not have put most of our resources and camped in Bugiri. We should have concentrated on Nebbi and Sheema which were sure wins," said one member of NEC, who spoke off the record because he is not authorised to speak for the party.
While appearing on the Capital Gang, a weekend political talk show hosted at Capital FM, FDC spokesperson, Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda said their terrible performance was in part explained by their main rival's access to state resources and apparatus.
While Ssemujju's view could hold true to an extent, when measured against the fact that they lost where Jeema and UPC won, it raises more questions.
Yesterday, Ssemujju confirmed to this newspaper that the report in Monday's NEC meeting showed that "as a party, we made a mistake to have spread ourselves across the country. We should have concentrated on areas like Sheema and Nebbi. For instance, the FDC secretary general, Nathan Nandala-Mafabi and FDC treasurer, Geoffrey Ekanya should have camped in Sheema or Nebbi, instead of Kotido where our biggest win was the district councillor slot. Well, it was also a good win but we need to optimise our efforts and resources well."
According to Ssemujju, the party has resolved to go to court to challenge the results for Nebbi and Sheema.
"The party representatives in Nebbi have informed The Observer of the malpractices that happened in Nebbi. In fact, the NRM candidate was declared after some gun shots. For the case of Sheema, there was voting beyond the recommended time, voter bribery, multiple voting, discrepancies between the results declared and those on the declaration forms…all this points to one thing – we were rigged and we have to challenge that in courts of law," Ssemujju said.
Given the outcome of polls, FDC concedes to being thin on the ground but Ssemujju told us they are gaining more ground and remain the most formidable force against the NRM.
"The media can claim that we have lost but you have to know that we have more representatives in local councils and parliament than any of those parties or so-called third forces. We have won councillors in Kotido, we lost in Bugiri but we have councillors and the mayor is ours," Ssemujju said.
Whereas FDC remains the majority in the opposition, there is need for it to appreciate that they have no capacity to engage the NRM across the country.
Consequently, as former Makindye West MP, Hussein Kyanjo observes, they need to build synergies with other political forces, especially those with superior presence in some places, so long as they agree on the bare minimum.
NO INVOKING RULES
The Monday NEC meeting offered an opportunity for sober reflection.
"We agreed that some of our members made mistakes by siding with candidates from other parties – as it was the case in Bugiri where some members within the Bugiri FDC structure openly campaigned for Basalirwa. But, we need to appreciate why this was happening and how we can better address this state of affairs," a NEC member said.
"Consequently, the NEC members agreed to have a retreat where some of these things will be ironed out and have members reminded about the party ideals, rules and values. And what are the consequences of supporting another force against the party's candidate."
According to the FDC constitution, a member of the party ceases being one if, among others, such a person stands as an independent against the official party candidate or behaves in such a manner that contradicts the party policy.
Nandala-Mafabi threatened to invoke this rule against members, especially when it became clear that senior members from the neighbouring Bugweri constituency were said to be firmly behind Basalirwa.
The Mafabi option was not carried through because as the NEC meeting realised there are other opportunities in the wind like the Arua municipality by-election and further polling in five new districts.
For instance, the formidable former Terego county MP, Eziat Kassiano Wadri, is standing as an independent candidate for the Arua municipality seat, were FDC has already selected Bruce Musema as its official party candidate.
According to Ssemujju, "the NEC will sit today to resolve on how it will handle the issue of FDC-leaning independent candidates standing against the FDC official candidates."
BOBI WINE AND OTHERS
During the Monday meeting of a party organ dominated by members sympathetic to former leader, Col (rtd) Dr Kizza Besigye, time was set aside to look more closely into the emerging force being coordinated by Kyadondo East MP, Robert Kyagulanyi a.k.a Bobi Wine.
According to sources, the NEC concerns went beyond Bobi Wine, a game-changer, to the entire opposition forces pushing for a third way which is considered to be undermining Besigye's credentials as the leading opposition element.
"There were feelings expressed that even some members who are falling into this trap of comparing Dr Besigye with Bobi Wine, are making a very big mistake. They should examine the intentions of those who are pushing for that. It is more than what is said. They want to kill FDC –something we are not ready for or the party will not tolerate," said the sources.
Ssemujju confirmed that these concerns were raised but he said that no concrete resolutions were made about it.
It is understood from political watchers and pundits that there are quiet discussions taking place amongst those opposition forces that detest Besigye's aggressive brand and dominance of the anti-NRM agenda.
These forces include Democratic Party members championing the reunion and harmonisation within their party; a group of FDC members aligned to former FDC leader, Maj. Gen. (rtd) Gregory Mugisha Muntu; Jeema; and the forces aligned to Bobi Wine.
We are told that it is against this background that the Muntu group made a subtle appearance in Bugiri. It should also be noted that this is not the first time that FDC has raised concerns about Bobi Wine and other forces.
During the Jinja municipality East by-election, the FDC management committee held a special session at the headquarters presided over by party president, Patrick Obo Amuriat and fought off Bobi Wine from officially playing a lead role for its candidate, Paul Mwiru, who eventually won the race.
His presence in the constituency nonetheless contributed to Mwiru's victory. That he has repeated the feat in Bugiri against all odds, beating both the Besigye candidate in Namatende and Francis Oketcho who was supported by President Museveni and NRM secretary general Justine Lumumba goes one step further in confirming an on-going re-configuration of forces in opposition circles.
It also presents FDC with the latest substantiation that its days as top rival to NRM have entered a new realm where it must now watch its front, flanks and hind quarters at every turn.
skakaire@observer.ug
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