Ugandan scientists have expressed concern that the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the country will go out of hand if the lockdown is lifted today. President Yoweri Museveni is scheduled to address the country today Monday on whether the country's lockdown will be lifted or extended beyond May 5.
The scientists, who, are part of the national task force, say that is it inevitable for the number of confirmed cases to rise when the lockdown is lifted, because Ugandans, who, are currently in their homes now, will have the opportunity to mix and hence spread the disease among themselves. Uganda currently has 89 cases with 52 recoveries and zero deaths.
A section of Ugandans is calling for the lifting of the lockdown so as "to stop hiding from the virus" and instead seek to build enough herd immunity - where the majority of the people get infected and the virus will have no new hosts to infect.
There is no evidence yet to confirm if herd immunity works against coronavirus infections. The virus has taken on several strains as it spreads across the world. In some countries, it is killing the most aged and those with underlying health conditions. However, in some other countries young and healthy individuals are also being killed. Uganda's strain is majorly similar to that in Europe which is mostly affecting the aged.
Dr Misaki Wayengera, the head of the COVID-19 scientific committee on the national task force, says that the number of confirmed cases will increase and even double the moment the lockdown is lifted.
"If you look at what has happened elsewhere, the moment you lift, immediately the infections begin to grow. So you should just be aware that cases will grow anyway in Uganda as well once we open up and people begin to move around cases will grow. This period was to give us chance to prepare for that time. To be ready that when the cases begin to grow, our hospitals are well prepared, we have testing capacity, people have information - you know even the villager knows how to protect themselves. That is the whole idea. Do not celebrate so much for this period, yes, you have done well but there is a next protracted war that is coming up ahead." said Wayengera.
As of today, Uganda has some of the lowest COVID-19 confirmed figures within the East African Community bloc. Neighbours Tanzania, Kenya and Rwanda have recorded; 480, 435 and 255 cases respectively. Countries like Germany and Ghana have shown an increase in the number of cases once the lockdown was lifted.
On the day the lockdown was lifted in Germany on April 20, the number of confirmed cases in the country stood at 1,018. The next day, with a 126 increase in cases, the number stood at 1,144 cases. At the time that Ghana lifted its lockdown on April 19, the country had a total of 1,042 cases. 11 days after the number of confirmed cases stands at 1,671.
At the beginning of April 2020 case modelling that was carried out by the ministry of Health predicted that if the country had not put in place preventive measures, the country would have recorded a total of 18,878 confirmed cases and 566 deaths by April 13, 2020. At the time, the number of confirmed cases in the country stood at 44.
The World Health Organisation has advised countries to lift lockdowns only after they have put in place necessary measures to handle new infections. Dr Wayengera says that Uganda has used its lockdown to prepare for what might come next.
"Even the western countries failed to do this. We're trying to do our part amidst the few resources. We've pulled out local manufacturers to fill the gaps and we have to evaluate all the sectors. The health sector is well but there are people in transport, even if we opened up, you think people are going to move in taxis? No. Because taxis are too squeezed that you can't put 14 people in a taxi. So there are many things beyond the health sector that we need to put in place." Wayengera added.
Prof Dr Rhoda Wanyenze, a dean of the school of public health at Makerere University, says that there are several things Uganda needs to have in place before the lockdown can be lifted. At the moment she highlights the reduction of imported cases as something the country needs to address.
Dr Misaki Wayengera, the head of the COVID-19 scientific committee on the national task force, says that the number of confirmed cases will increase and even double the moment the lockdown is lifted.
"If you look at what has happened elsewhere, the moment you lift, immediately the infections begin to grow. So you should just be aware that cases will grow anyway in Uganda as well once we open up and people begin to move around cases will grow. This period was to give us chance to prepare for that time. To be ready that when the cases begin to grow, our hospitals are well prepared, we have testing capacity, people have information - you know even the villager knows how to protect themselves. That is the whole idea. Do not celebrate so much for this period, yes, you have done well but there is a next protracted war that is coming up ahead." said Wayengera.
As of today, Uganda has some of the lowest COVID-19 confirmed figures within the East African Community bloc. Neighbours Tanzania, Kenya and Rwanda have recorded; 480, 435 and 255 cases respectively. Countries like Germany and Ghana have shown an increase in the number of cases once the lockdown was lifted.
On the day the lockdown was lifted in Germany on April 20, the number of confirmed cases in the country stood at 1,018. The next day, with a 126 increase in cases, the number stood at 1,144 cases. At the time that Ghana lifted its lockdown on April 19, the country had a total of 1,042 cases. 11 days after the number of confirmed cases stands at 1,671.
At the beginning of April 2020 case modelling that was carried out by the ministry of Health predicted that if the country had not put in place preventive measures, the country would have recorded a total of 18,878 confirmed cases and 566 deaths by April 13, 2020. At the time, the number of confirmed cases in the country stood at 44.
The World Health Organisation has advised countries to lift lockdowns only after they have put in place necessary measures to handle new infections. Dr Wayengera says that Uganda has used its lockdown to prepare for what might come next.
"Even the western countries failed to do this. We're trying to do our part amidst the few resources. We've pulled out local manufacturers to fill the gaps and we have to evaluate all the sectors. The health sector is well but there are people in transport, even if we opened up, you think people are going to move in taxis? No. Because taxis are too squeezed that you can't put 14 people in a taxi. So there are many things beyond the health sector that we need to put in place." Wayengera added.
Prof Dr Rhoda Wanyenze, a dean of the school of public health at Makerere University, says that there are several things Uganda needs to have in place before the lockdown can be lifted. At the moment she highlights the reduction of imported cases as something the country needs to address.
"There is guidance that has been provided by the WHO on how countries should assess how they are ready to lift the lockdown and Uganda has used it also. One of the key issues is to make sure we control the epidemic, the second issue is to make sure we have sufficient capacity to be able to test, track and isolate people who have COVID. To make sure that we minimise the risk of importation of the virus. For Uganda, you know that that is our biggest challenge now because we're bordering five countries and importation of the virus now that the airport is closed, the most obvious is what we know. The Busia, Malaba, Mutukula - the borders and that is what the ministry at the National Taskforce is working on," she said.
Prof Wanyenze added that at the moment, she is not yet comfortable with the lifting of the lockdown given the rising cases in neighbouring countries.
We're in a precarious state but it is still early to be making conclusions. You see people are making conclusions on the numbers for Africa right now that they are small, but you need to realise that many countries in Africa are in a certain form of lockdown. When you look at the curve for South Africa right now, they have been getting like 100 cases sometimes 150 a day. But they have been in lockdown. Kenya has a different form of lockdown, but you see the numbers have been big, they are growing but they are in lockdown. What would happen if they were not in lockdown, those numbers would be much higher across the country. So am more cautious about judging the lockdown because countries that have been under lockdown the curves are not too good. It is an area to watch. I wouldn't be comfortable yet," said Wanyenze.
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