First son Lt. Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba's path to the presidency in 2026 is very narrow and fraught with elements of inevitable failure, Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu, a former army commander, former president of the opposition Forum for Democratic Change and now national coordinator of the Alliance for National Transformation [ANT], has said.
Speaking to The Observer in a recent interview, Muntu said if President Museveni (Muhoozi's father) had not left a bittersweet political legacy, it would have been very easy for his son, a UPDF three-star general, to ride on his father's coat-tails to reclaim the presidency.
"His father Gen Museveni is hanging on the presidency by the skin of his teeth; so, how would it be easier for Gen Muhoozi to step in? If Museveni had left a good legacy, it would be easy for Gen Muhoozi to go and compete. The burden Muhoozi is going to face is the legacy of Gen Museveni," Muntu, who served for nine years as the commander of the UPDF, said.
The once subtle promotion of a Muhoozi presidency in 2026 has now boldly bubbled to the fore. The campaigners have become bolder and louder on social media.
Recently Balaam Barugahara, an NRM-leaning music promoter, donated relief items to people affected by the Covid-19 lockdown packed in bags with inscriptions; 'Donated by Balaam on behalf of supporters of Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba,"
There has also been a sustained social media campaign for the Muhoozi project. The first time the project was mentioned in the past by Gen David Sejusa in an interview with Daily Monitor, –the newspaper was closed and the general fled the country.
In the interview below, Gen Muntu told Baker Batte Lule about the 2021 elections and what his party ANT is doing in preparation.
Excerpts:
How has the lockdown been for you?
It has been quite disruptive because by March, we were midway of our field tour. We had just been to the Central region and then we were moving to the West and then to the North and then the East.
We had 17 districts we were moving to, building branch networks and also doing training for leaders. But since then, we have been locked down other than conducting online meetings for the interim committee to make certain decisions and putting in place plans that we intend to roll out when the lockdown is lifted.
Throughout the lockdown, Museveni has been the lone political player…Do you think some of the decisions he has made have been to his advantage politically?
We gave the government the benefit of doubt; we didn't want to distract their attention. We wanted to ensure they do all the things that they had to do to save lives.
There are many things we could challenge but we know that when a country is in a crisis like it was in, we don't want to do anything that would give the regime chance to divert attention from the things that it needed to do.
The only unfortunate thing is that although much of the actions of the ministry of Health and the government were initially on the right track and the population was behind these actions, they never understood the goodwill that was given from all of us. When they started abusing the goodwill, that's where they started losing direction.
What did they do to lose the goodwill?
Any government that has got leaders who are mature and understand how to handle issues of that nature, you rally the country together, so that even if you hit a crisis, the country is together.
There must not be a government or the opposition; death is death, all people die. So far, we have been fortunate and we thank God for that, that there hasn't been any loss of life. But imagine a situation where we are losing people in their thousands and then you find there is a political divide, you can get a mess.
The regime has lost sight of the opportunity to rally the country. When they started politicizing the distribution of food, clamping down on opposition like they did with Hon Francis Zaake. It was absolutely ugly. When the Shs 20 million, which was given to MPs and then the opposition and some NRM MPs who still care about this country didn't go along, they were stampeded off the floor and they were unable to present a minority report.
Then there was the falling out between the president and the speaker of parliament. The president condemning the passage of the Shs 20 million. The MPs returned the money but then, they [government] go behind the scenes and give the 317 MPs Shs 40 million. This is not party money but the country's money. The level of deception shows you how degenerate these people have become.
By the way, have you been watching President Museveni's addresses?
Yes, I would watch closely and I could see that, down the road, he had really lost it. When you have the whole country watching you and you don't use that opportunity to move the country out of the crisis, then you will never change.
They have continued with the old ways and the moment Covid-19 lockdown is lifted, we shall just go back to where we were. I don't think there will be any difference.
Some say, he's stronger politically than before the crisis…
He's in a bubble; it's going to burst; look at what happened in parliament where even his own base was in shambles; 317 MPs were in rebellion, they had to remove the picture of Museveni from their WhatsApp group and replaced it with that of Kadaga.
He scampered and that's how he ended up paying the Shs 40 million. Don't tell me that is popularity.
Covid-19 has disrupted the electoral calendar…how prepared are parties to take on President Museveni?
My hope is that we will see fairness on the side of the Electoral Commission and the regime. We also need to have consensus within the opposition and the party in power so that we can extend the time of the election to make up for the time lost since the lockdown.
Say if the lockdown is lifted in June, they have to add another three months and build it within the electoral agenda. That would be comfortable with us and we would do a number of things to prepare ourselves but also work with other parties to confront the ruling party in 2021. I'm hoping that this is something so logical and fair and they will not find any reason to torpedo it.
Extending an election might require a constitutional amendment…
It would be easy to build a consensus…
If there is no extension, can we still have a free and fair election?
Even if we didn't have a lockdown, we were not going into this election because we expected any fairness. We were going into this election believing in us doing everything that is humanly possible to organize ourselves so that we can overwhelm the regime in spite of the trick they normally play. It would be naïve of us to expect any fairness and free and transparent electoral process.
Even if they don't extend, we would still go in and prepare ourselves and do everything humanely possible within the time remaining because we are talking about life-and-death matters, we can't give up.
It's going to be very difficult to have an election as we know it with the disease still posing a threat; the question then is, is it even important to have an election?
I really hope that infections don't spread…if it's contained, I wouldn't see any reason why we wouldn't have an election even with social distancing as long as there is goodwill on all the players. We can agree on how the election will be conducted.
Before the lockdown, you had indicated that you are in conversation with leaders of other political groups; how far are those discussions?
Under lockdown, we have not been able to meet, but with the lifting of the lockdown, we shall be able to resume from where we stopped. On our part, we kept briefing the leaders of the three groups; the Democratic Party, Jeema and People Power.
We are always ready and willing to go into any initiative. Even when you have areas of disagreement, the best way is to discuss them. Work on those where you have agreement and deal separately with those you have no agreement as long as you have one common goal of regime change.
I have talked to a number of people within ANT. Some think you shouldn't challenge Museveni for the job yet others support your candidature.
My view has always been different from many actors and I know it causes a bit of confusion. The nature of our politics has been around individuals and most people want to hear a candidate, which is important.
But my view is that however good, however appealing that candidate is, there are things you must prepare for which will give that candidate a good ground to take on the regime. So, it's a direction we are taking as ANT because we believe that momentum must be built from below, not from the top.
Go down and build branch networks, prepare ground to support candidates at all levels. At the tail end, go into the issues of getting a candidate and once you get a candidate, then back up this candidate with the preparation you have made. When we say that, people get confused because people are always looking for the candidate to come up and then prepare the rest. I believe time will prove that the path we have chosen to take will bear fruit.
You sound like you are speaking in future yet the future is now…
Yes, we don't have time but we hope they will extend. If they don't, there is no alternative but to operate within the four months.
When ANT was formed, some MPs said that in the final year they will join the party, why aren't they jumping ship?
I suppose they must be trying to determine what to do and when to do it and we are comfortable with that ourselves because we still have up to September for the nominations to be done.
Are those the people you want to bank on, who, four months to nominations, don't know where they want to be?
In life you deal with situations as they are, not as they ought to be.
There are people within ANT who are uncomfortable working with Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu…
The beauty in ANT is that it's open; we are trying to create a healthy environment where all varying views can be debated without acrimony or friction. It's the only way we can change this country.
Any party, which takes power in this country, it will run the country dependent on the internal environment. If you don't build an internal environment that is tolerant, where all views are heard and then you build consensus out of one, the moment you succeed in that, it means you can even build a national structure.
You have moved trying to promote ANT; where are you now in Uganda's body politic?
We are reaching a point where we are going to overwhelm this country in ways in which people can't comprehend as we speak. It's a story of a Chinese bamboo that is planted and takes five years underground, but when it gets out of the soil, in one year it grows by nine feet.
In the five years when it is underground, it builds a branch network that is so spread. Even when it grows so tall, wind can't break it because it's well rooted. I think that is what is going to happen in this country.
I know for sure there are many Ugandans now who say ANT has the capability to manage the challenges of this country. It's a significant development.
We have had a number of interviews with you, and you paint a picture of how the anti-Museveni movement is growing vigorously but that doesn't seem to be happening…
I'm a realist, I know there are always some intervening forces, but that can't discourage you. I follow the law of cumulative effect. All this work we have been doing, doesn't go to waste.
To trigger a shift might need a very small effort. Right now we don't know what will cause that shift. Those of us who are on the side of change shall keep on piling on the weight until we get that shift.
We increasingly see the promotion of Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba…we saw the other day Balaam Barugahara, donating relief items on behalf of his [Muhoozi] friends… Question is, would you vouch for a Muhoozi presidency?
First his father Gen Museveni is hanging on the presidency by the skin of his teeth; so, how would it be easier for Gen Muhoozi to step in? If Museveni had left a good legacy, it would be easy for Gen Muhoozi to go and compete. The burden Muhoozi is going to face is the legacy of Gen. Museveni.
Can Gen Muntu ever support Gen Muhoozi?
We want to take out Gen Museveni; how can we then root for his son? But you see, once we take out Museveni and put in place credible, open free and fair elections, Gen Muhoozi can compete like any other Ugandans who have credentials. The issue is the unfairness of the process.
But Museveni can easily use that unfair process to gift Muhoozi the presidency…
It's not as easy as most people would expect. The dynamics are very complicated.
What makes them complicated?
It's not a topic I would want to go in for today.
We have heard about people within the NRM trying to reach out to you to work together…
Does anyone think we can have an engagement with the NRM of that nature? The fundamental issues of justice, fairness, transparency, democracy; that's what we are fighting for and the moment we sort out that, anybody can work with any party and there wouldn't be a problem.
But to work with an organization because we think it's impossible to oust them; is absolutely impossible. There is nothing as damaging as working with a regime that has lost credibility. At a personal level, I can never engage in such an arrangement.
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