The Electoral Commission ban on political campaigns in 20 districts and cities branded "super spreaders" of the infectious coronavirus is a very suspicious matter for opposition presidential and parliamentary candidates.
The ban locks out two of the largest voting blocs in the country; Kampala and Wakiso and ultimately denies all presidential candidates any opportunity to woo approximately six million out of 17 million registered voters countrywide. To many in the opposition, campaigns cannot be complete without mobilizing support in Kampala and Wakiso that have a combined voting bloc of about 2.5 million voters.
In a statement last week, Justice Simon Mugenyi Byabakama banned campaigns in those districts ostensibly to try and reverse the trajectory of the fast-spreading virus.
"Following a meeting with the ministry of Health experts… where they expressed great concern over the manner political ac-tors/candidates and their supporters were conducting themselves during campaigns, coupled with an upsurge in transmission of the virus and resultant deaths, the Commission has deemed it necessary to suspend campaign meetings of all categories of elections for the 2020/2021 General Elections..." Byabakama's press statement reads in part.
The statement advises the candidates to restrict themselves to virtual campaigns – radios, televisions, social media, community-based public address systems (kizindaalo) and other online platforms.
"These measures are necessitated by the prevailing Covid-19 situation in the country and the need to preserve the health of the citizens vis-a-vis their constitutional and democratic right to elect leaders of their choice as guaranteed under the Constitution. All candidates are strongly warned to adhere to these changes, the SOPs and guidelines in general, and any defiant/non-compliant candidate stands the risk of a total ban of his or her campaigns," Byabakama's statement adds.
EC banned campaigns in; Jinja, Jinja City, Kabale, Kalungu, Masaka, Masaka City, Tororo, Kampala, Luwero, Wakiso, Mukono, Buikwe, Buvuma, Kayunga, Mbarara, Mbarara City, Kabarole, Fort Portal City, Kasese and Kazo. This unprecedented decision by the Electoral Commission is going to affect close to six million voters in these areas.
According to EC records, the 2021 register as of September 2020 had 17,658,527 voters spread across 146 districts and 10 cities. An analysis of the registers indicates that Kampala district has the largest share of voters with 1, 282,713. It's neighbor, Wakiso district, follows closely with 1,157,362 voters.
Other districts are Luwero, 257,406 voters, Masaka, 178,092 voters; Buikwe, 235,875; Jinja, 275,446; Kabale, 309,419; Kalungu, 88,762; Tororo, 269,306; Kasese, 384,419; Buvuma, 42,534; Kayunga, 191,361; Mbarara, 269,514; Kabalore, 265,398; Kiruhura, 175,065; [Kazo was initially part of Kiruhura].
As expected, the decision rubbed the opposition the wrong way. National Unity Platform candidate, Kyagulanyi Robert Ssentamu, a leading challenger to the ruling NRM's Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, said the ban is yet another testimony of how the Electoral Commission is working in cahoots with NRM to deny them an opportunity to speak to voters.
"In real sense, Gen Museveni has tried everything humanly possible to block us from holding meetings in Kampala, Masaka and Wakiso! This has been the pattern for the last three years. The other districts are added here to sanitize their cowardly actions," Kyagulanyi said after news broke of the suspension.
"The dictatorship is in panic. They've been surprised by the massive enthusiasm and support we've received within all parts of the country. They just can't imagine what would happen if they allowed our people to meet in these areas. They are right to be very afraid!" Ssemujju Ibrahim Nganda, the spokesperson of the Forum for Democratic Change, FDC, led by presidential candidate Patrick Amuiriat Oboi, said since the campaigns started, government loathed the idea of having campaigns in Kampala and Wakiso.
"The suspension has nothing to do with health issues because if that were the case, government ought to have announced measures that affect all gatherings including traders in markets and city centers, burials, churches, mosques, etc," Ssemujju said.
"The fact that they singled out campaign meetings tells you that it was not Covid but Tibuhaburwa cannot afford very competitive campaigns in these cities during the last days of the campaign," Ssemujju, who is defending his parliamentary seat in Kira municipality, added.
The NRM secretariat leadership also believes the Electoral Commission decision was rather draconian because no consultations were done but says it is wrong to accuse NRM of conniving with the Electoral Commission to circumvent the will of the people.
Justine Kasule Lumumba, the NRM secretary general, actually said the decision affected their candidate more than it did others.
"Our candidate was supposed to campaign in Wakiso on Monday (December 28), Mukono on Tuesday and end with Kampala on Wednesday but all that is not possible," Lumumba said.
She added that even looking at the results of the last 2016 presidential elections, Museveni won in more than half of the districts where campaigns were suspended. Museveni was only defeated in three out of 12 districts where campaigns were suspended.
These were Masaka, Wakiso and Kampala. Dr Kizza Be-sigye, who was Museveni's main challenger, then took Kampala district with 334,919 votes (65.93%) against Museveni's 157,098 (30.9%). In Wakiso, Besigye got 280,793 votes (59.97%) against Museveni's 172,129 votes (36.76%).
In Masaka district, Besigye got 46,549 votes (50.69%) against Museveni's 41,998 (45.73%). In Kasese district, Besigye defeated Museveni with 132,762 against 97,367 votes. Even for districts like Jinja, Kabarole, and Mbarara, although, Museveni generally won, Besigye performed relatively better in the urban centers, which have now been curved out to form cities.
THE ORDER WORSE FOR MPS
Although the focus is mainly put on presidential campaigns, the Electoral Commission order is particularly devastating for parliamentary and local government candidates.
"I'm currently stuck at home; the only way I have been interacting with people is through campaigns. I don't know whether I should go to radio or TV or use social media, because when you use those platforms, you are speaking to no audience. You may find that people watching you are not in your constituency," Ssemujju said.
Asked whether he was going to defy this directive, Ssemujju said; "I don't want to subject people to unnecessary brutality, me I don't care, I can afford to be arrested or beaten, but I don't want to see women crying after their children have been tear-gassed. So, I'm still figuring out what I'm going to do without subjecting people to unnecessary brutality."
For her part, Lumumba called upon the Electoral Commission to at least procure airtime for candidates in order to reach out to their supporters.
"If you suspend campaigns in those districts, are you also going to suspend burials, churches, mosques or we should go and campaign from there?" Lumumba wondered.
Ugandans will be going to the polls on January 14 to choose who will be their next president and members of parliament. Ten candidates are seeking to put an end to Museveni's 35-year tenure as president of Uganda.
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